The Pew Internet and American Life Project has released a new study, titled “The Future of the Internet III”, which takes an educated look at what the Internet will look like in 2020. The results are a little startling, and makes one very concerned about security and privacy in the future. And it would seem that the email administrator will have plenty to worry about.

There will no doubt still be attackers, hackers, spammers and others who will continue to use email and the Internet in inappropriate ways for the purpose of gaining wealth. But much of the risks will be coming from legitimate sources, which will become increasingly aggressive. One of the greatest  concerns is that the study predicts that people will trade privacy for discounts. The study includes quotes from several luminaries, including Nicholas Carr, who wrote, “The Internet will have enabled the monitoring and manipulation of people by businesses and governments on a scale never before imaginable. Most people will have happily traded their privacy–consciously or unconsciously–for consumer benefits such as increased convenience and lower prices. As a result, the line between marketing and manipulation will have largely disappeared.” And I think Nick’s got a good point.

Already, we as consumers have demonstrated a great willingness to turn over private information. We give out our social security numbers willingly to businesses of all types when they don’t really need them, and we’re always anxious to “opt in” to receiving email advertisements (spam?) in exchange for receiving some sort of free newsletter or information. Many of the attacks and data thievery of the future will be of our own doing–because we insist of leaving open the back door.

Havi Hoffman elaborates on this theme, accurately stating that we will become desensitized because of the enormous amount of personal information that is online. People will be more open to sharing personal information, and the notion of privacy will change dramatically.

Also, it doesn’t take a crystal ball to know that this prediction is right: The Internet will be increasingly mobile, and accessed through devices such as smartphones and other mobile devices. This too poses an increased security risk that will have to be addressed.

Overall, the study poses several fascinating predictions, but the overall theme is disparaging: We are becoming desensitized to privacy concerns and the need for security. I will add my own two cents worth to the predictions and gaze into my own crystal ball to predict the following: Email-based attacks will not go away, instead, they will become more organized and targeted. Email-based cybercrime is already big business, it will become even bigger by 2020 and will penetrate the mobile Internet as well, with attacks designed to infiltrate mobile devices and smartphones.